Retention and Recruiting

Retention Prediction Model (RPM): Machine learning for high-fidelity retention forecasting


Data

RPM harnesses extensive personnel data, including:

  • Career histories
  • Family information
  • Economic conditions

FIFE Algorithm

Leverages IDA’s Finite-Interval Forecasting Engine (FIFE)

Outputs

Forecasts retention outcomes over time

  • Person-level forecasts
  • Aggregate for group forecasts
  • Operationalize as dashboard inputs in cloud systems

IDA has applied the RPM across to answer a range of military personnel questions. Examples include…


Army

Developing targeted retention incentives to help the Army retain high-quality junior officers

National Guard

Supporting the Army National Guard in programming for future demand for training school slots

Navy

Identifying factors correlated with promotions and exits among Navy officers

Uniformed Services University

Measuring the return on investment for physicians trained at the Uniformed Services University

Military Compensation Structure

Quantifying the predicted costs to DoD of changing the military compensation structure

Recruiting: Supporting DoD in recruiting the next generation of talented service members and civilians


Recruiting

Examples include…

  • Identifying trends in community demographic, economic, and cultural factors that predict military enlistment
  • Evaluating the SMART program for recruiting STEM talent
  • Assessing implications of national demographic and labor market trends for Army National Guard

Compensation and Benefits

Compensation and Benefits: IDA analyses DoD policies to identify potential improvements and cost savings


Recruiting

Evaluating and quantifying the effects of a single-salary system on Service members’ earnings, military readiness, personnel costs, and tax revenue

Estimating the cost of providing healthcare to DoD beneficiaries under an alternative benefit design and identifying sources of potential savings relative to the TRICARE system

Developing recommendations for pilot programs designed to assess proposed TRICARE reforms and provide insights into national healthcare reform issues

Examining the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on service members and families

Recommending a range for the government discount rate used in calculating lump sum military retirement payments under the Blended Retirement System

Research Spotlight: Analysis of a Salary-Based Pay System for the Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation


Recruiting

IDA’s contribution to the 2020 QRMC report included an analysis of the feasibility and implications of a single-salary pay system, as well as recommendations for alternative policy changes targeted at improving the efficiency and fairness of the military pay system.

See our report and publication in the Thirteenth QRMC, Vol 2