Identifying Future Threats


  • Nuclear Futures Study — IDA’s nuclear futures study for the Office of the Director, Net Assessment, developed 19 illustrative, futuristic scenarios of conflicts that include the use of nuclear weapons and challenge traditional assumptions about the future of nuclear war. The study also developed a methodology for the systematic creation and characterization of such scenarios. (2016)
  • Security Risks to Undersea Energy Infrastructure — IDA’s assessment of security risks to the U.S. domestic undersea energy (oil and natural gas) infrastructure for the Office of the Director, Net Assessment, evaluated potential vulnerabilities for the 2016 to 2036 time frame. The study included examinations of unmanned underwater vehicle capabilities, five illustrative attack scenarios, and potential defensive countermeasures. (2016)