DATAWorks 2022: Case Study on Applying Sequential Methods in Operational Testing

April, 2022
IDA document: D-32948
FFRDC: Systems and Analyses Center
Type: Documents
Division: Operational Evaluation Division
John T. Haman, Keyla Pagán-Rivera, Rebecca M. Medlin, John W. Dennis See more authors
Sequential methods concern statistical evaluation in which the number, pattern or composition of the data is not determined at the start of the investigation but instead depends on the information acquired during the investigation. Although sequential methods originated in ballistics testing for the Department of Defense (DOD), they are underutilized in the DOD. Expanding the use of sequential methods may save money and reduce test time. In this presentation, we introduce sequential methods, describe its potential uses in operational test and evaluation (OT&E) and present a method for applying it to the test and evaluation of defense systems. We evaluate the proposed method by performing simulation studies and applying the method to a case study. Additionally, we discuss some of the challenges we might encounter when using sequential analysis in OT&E. This presentation was prepared for the annual DATAWorks Conference, held April 26-28, 2022.