This year’s winner of the Larry D. Welch Award for Best External Publication is “Analogous Response Redux: Vladimir Putin's Aspirations for Altering the Maritime Balance,” by IDA’s Jerome Burke. The study was published by the Naval War College Press in 2024.
About the Winning Article
This paper examines Russian national security and maritime doctrine, policies and public statements, and ongoing Russian naval programs in the context of the return of the Analogous Response strategy of the 1980s. Analogous Response was a term that American strategists and intelligence analysts developed in late 1983 and early 1984. The term characterized a Soviet maritime strategy of deploying submarines armed with nuclear sea-launched cruise missiles off the U.S. coast. Russian President Vladimir Putin is at present reprising that Soviet era strategy. This research has been published as a Newport Paper — a book-length research project that Naval War College leadership considers to be of particular interest to policy makers, scholars and analysts.
Our Award Recipients
Jerome Burke joined IDA in 2008 and currently serves as an Adjunct Research Staff Member in the Global Dynamics and Intelligence Division. His fields of expertise include intelligence planning operations and assessments; forces and strategy assessments; combatant command planning and analytical support; and resource and support analysis. He holds a master’s degree national security studies.
Other Finalist Nominations
The Welch Award Selection Committee named the following publications as finalists among the nominations this year. Together, these publications illustrate the diversity of IDA expertise and reflect well upon the authors and IDA.
“Public versus Private Care in the Military Health System: Evidence From Low Back Pain Patients” by Christopher Leggett, Rachel Schmidt, Jonathan Skinner, Jon Lurie and Patrick Luan. Military Medicine, Volume 189, Issue 9-10.
“Toward a Zero Trust Metric” by William R. Simpson. Procedia Computer Science, Volume 204.
“Russia’s Selling, But Who’s Buying? Analyzing the Characteristics of PMC Clients in Africa” by Linda Bishai, Stephanie Burchard and Sarah Daly. Small Wars Journal.
“Improved Methodology in Support of FUSL-AJEM Validation" by Thomas Johnson (former OED), Craig Andres, Russell Dibelka, Lindsey Butler, David Grimm and Juliana Ivancik. Aircraft Survivability Journal.
“On the Risk of Kessler Syndrome: A Statistical Modeling Framework for Orbital Debris Growth” by Cameron Liang, Paul Fanto and Angelo Signoracci. The Journal of the Astronautical Sciences, Volume 71, Article 45.
About the Winning Article
This paper examines Russian national security and maritime doctrine, policies and public statements, and ongoing Russian naval programs in the context of the return of the Analogous Response strategy of the 1980s. Analogous Response was a term that American strategists and intelligence analysts developed in late 1983 and early 1984. The term characterized a Soviet maritime strategy of deploying submarines armed with nuclear sea-launched cruise missiles off the U.S. coast. Russian President Vladimir Putin is at present reprising that Soviet era strategy. This research has been published as a Newport Paper — a book-length research project that Naval War College leadership considers to be of particular interest to policy makers, scholars and analysts.
Our Award Recipients
Jerome Burke joined IDA in 2008 and currently serves as an Adjunct Research Staff Member in the Global Dynamics and Intelligence Division. His fields of expertise include intelligence planning operations and assessments; forces and strategy assessments; combatant command planning and analytical support; and resource and support analysis. He holds a master’s degree national security studies.
Other Finalist Nominations
The Welch Award Selection Committee named the following publications as finalists among the nominations this year. Together, these publications illustrate the diversity of IDA expertise and reflect well upon the authors and IDA.
“Public versus Private Care in the Military Health System: Evidence From Low Back Pain Patients” by Christopher Leggett, Rachel Schmidt, Jonathan Skinner, Jon Lurie and Patrick Luan. Military Medicine, Volume 189, Issue 9-10.
“Toward a Zero Trust Metric” by William R. Simpson. Procedia Computer Science, Volume 204.
“Russia’s Selling, But Who’s Buying? Analyzing the Characteristics of PMC Clients in Africa” by Linda Bishai, Stephanie Burchard and Sarah Daly. Small Wars Journal.
“Improved Methodology in Support of FUSL-AJEM Validation" by Thomas Johnson (former OED), Craig Andres, Russell Dibelka, Lindsey Butler, David Grimm and Juliana Ivancik. Aircraft Survivability Journal.
“On the Risk of Kessler Syndrome: A Statistical Modeling Framework for Orbital Debris Growth” by Cameron Liang, Paul Fanto and Angelo Signoracci. The Journal of the Astronautical Sciences, Volume 71, Article 45.