United States-China Gray Zone Conflict in the 2027 to 2032 Battlespace

This study examines strategic competition and the potential for a gray zone origin military conflict between the People’s Republic of China and the United States in the 2027 to 2032 timeframe. IDA developed four independent scenarios across key stress points (Taiwan, Senkaku Islands, South China Sea, and the Belt and Road Initiative) that plausibly could trigger armed conflict. The scenarios will provide insight into potential vulnerabilities and areas of improvements to Department of Defense capabilities and plans.