Root Causes of Cost Growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs

September, 2020
IDA document: P-13233
FFRDC: Systems and Analyses Center
Type: Documents
Division: Cost Analysis and Research Division
David L. McNicol See more authors
The proximate cause of a large part of cost growth experienced by Major Defense Acquisition Programs (MDAPs) over the period Fiscal Year (FY) 1965–FY 2009 was unrealistic features in the program’s initial baselines. This paper develops a theory of the root causes of this part of cost growth and provides statistical estimates of the model implied by this theory.