This issue of IDA Research Notes is dedicated to the winner and finalists of the 2016 Larry D. Welch Award for best external publication. Named in honor of IDA former president and U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff, General Larry Welch, the award recognizes individuals who exemplify General Welch’s high standards of analytic excellence through their external publication in peerreviewed journals or other professional publications, including books and monographs. The articles in this edition are executive summaries of the original published pieces. We have identified and credited the original publication for each article, and, where possible, we have included a link to the full piece.