Improving Shortfall Estimates for the National Defense Stockpile: An Optimization Approach to Material Supply Chain Modeling

June, 2025
IDA document: 3004484
FFRDC: Systems and Analyses Center
Type: Documents
Division: Strategy, Forces and Resources Division
Authors:
Authors
Dominic C. Flocco See more authors
IDA developed an analytical framework to help identify and mitigate potential gaps in material supply chains. Central to this system is the stockpile sizing module (SSM), which estimates material shortfalls during national emergencies. This MORS Symposium slide deck presents an enhanced, multi-commodity flow-model that builds upon the SSM’s network linear programming formulation, incorporating two key stages of supply — mining and refining — while tracking material throughout these stages and accounting for supply decrements. This improved framework provides more accurate shortfall calculations, identifying critical bottlenecks and offering insights into how the U.S. can better prepare for future national security emergencies.