Forecasting Demand for Air National Guard Training to Improve Military Readiness, WEAI Presentation

June, 2021
IDA document: P-22653
FFRDC: Systems and Analyses Center
Type: Documents , Human Capital
Division: Strategy, Forces and Resources Division
Authors:

Authors

Julie A. Lockwood, Joseph M. King, Jay Dennis, Akshay A. Jain, Minerva S. Song See more authors

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document cover, Forecasting Demand for Air National Guard Training to Improve Military Readiness, WEAI Presentation

Using the IDA-developed machine learning tool called Retention Prediction Model (RPM), we provide the Air National Guard (ANG) with enhanced training demand forecasts. Th RPM uses Defense Manpower Data Center data and ANG training data, spanning 2005-2020 and comprising about 1.4 million person-years for about 215,000 enlisted airmen. Results show the model correctly classifies 71% of service exits and 79% of service retentions across the period.