DATAWorks 2021: Warhead Arena Analysis Advancements

April, 2021
IDA document: D-11038
FFRDC: Systems and Analyses Center
Type: Documents
Division: Operational Evaluation Division
Mark A. Couch, Thomas H. Johnson, John T. Haman, Kerry N. Walzl, Heather M. Wojton, Thomas Hatch-Aguilar, David Higdon See more authors
Fragmentation analysis is a critical piece of live fire test and evaluation (LFT&E) of warhead lethality and vulnerability. New optical tracking technology is promising to increase the fidelity of fragmentation data and decrease the time and costs associated with data collection. However, the new data will be complex, three-dimensional “fragmentation clouds,” with a larger number of individual data points. How can testers effectively summarize spatial data and use it to draw conclusions about warhead performance? In this briefing, we discuss Bayesian spatial models along with several exploratory data analysis techniques that help make sense of the data.