DATAWorks 2021: Empirical Analysis of COVID-19 in the U.S.

April, 2021
IDA document: D-21549
FFRDC: Systems and Analyses Center
Type: Documents
Division: Operational Evaluation Division
Emily D. Heuring See more authors
The zoonotic emergence of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 at the beginning of 2020 and the subsequent global pandemic of COVID-19 has caused massive disruptions to economies and health care systems, particularly in the United States. Using the results of serology testing, we have developed true prevalence estimates for COVID-19 case counts in the U.S. over time, which allows for more precise estimates of infection and case fatality rates throughout the course of the pandemic. To elucidate the behavioral, demographic, weather, and policy factors that contribute to or inhibit the spread of COVID-19, IDA compiled panel data sets of empirically derived, publicly available COVID-19 data and analyzed which factors were most highly correlated with increased and decreased spread within U.S. states and counties. These analyses can lead to some recommendations concerning future pandemic response preparedness.