A Bayesian Approach to Evaluation of Operational Testing of Land Warfare Systems

April, 2014
IDA document: D-5157
FFRDC: Systems and Analyses Center
Type: Documents
Division: Operational Evaluation Division
Lee Dewald, Robert Holcomb, Sam Parry, Alyson Wilson See more authors
In this paper we critique perceived deficiencies in current practices in analyzing operational test metrics and demonstrate how a Bayesian approach could be applied to operational tests to improve confidence in the assessment of the test results. We develop an approach and apply it to the analysis of Percent Blue Survivors and Percent Red Killed as univariate measures of effectiveness in operational testing, using historical data.