In 2009, the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA) produced the final draft of a
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) guide documenting a methodology to
estimate casualties from chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN)
weapons. That document, Allied Medical Publication 8 (C): NATO Planning Guide for
the Estimation of CBRN Casualties, (AMedP-8(C)), officially promulgated in March
2011, included the parameters to estimate casualties caused by three chemical agents, five
biological agents, seven radioisotopes, nuclear fallout, and prompt nuclear effects. Each
year since 2009, IDA has published an annual review that extends this methodology to
new agents, materials, and conditions.
As IDA has implemented recommendations from these annual reviews, the scope of
the AMedP-8(C) methodology has expanded, and further enhancements are expected as
new information is identified each year. The objective of this document, the 2013 review,
is to provide a framework to assess the relative costs and benefits of modifications to the
AMedP-8(C) methodology to inform the prioritization of future efforts.